Quantum Computing in 2026: IBM and Google Set the Real Deadline for Business Impact
The McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor projects that the global quantum industry surpassed $1 billion in revenue in 2025. With Google's Willow chip and IBM's Condor processor, C-level executives have between two and four years to begin strategic assessments before the competitive window closes.
Quantum computing has left the laboratory. In December 2024, Google unveiled the Willow, a quantum chip capable of performing a calculation in five minutes that would take 10 septillion years on any existing classical computer. In January 2026, IBM announced the Condor processor, with a fivefold increase in the number of qubits compared to the previous generation, accompanied by simultaneous improvements in coherence time and reduced error rates.
The McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor 2025 estimates that global quantum computing revenues were between $650 million and $750 million in 2024 and are expected to have surpassed $1 billion in 2025. The broader outlook is for an economic impact of $1 trillion to $2 trillion annually by 2035.
The issue is not the technology. It is the gap in business preparedness.
The Asymmetry between Perception and Readiness
According to an IBM study, 59% of executives believe quantum AI will transform their sector by the end of the decade. Only 27% expect their organisations to be using quantum computing in any capacity within that same timeframe. This asymmetry is the central strategic risk that boards need to address now.
JPMorgan Chase has formed a formal partnership with IBM to explore quantum algorithms in options pricing and risk analysis, with preliminary studies indicating that quantum models outperform classical Monte Carlo simulations in speed and scalability.
The Closest Applications for Impact
The categories with the closest prospects for commercial application include: drug discovery and new materials, financial modelling and risk analysis in complex portfolios, optimisation of energy networks and supply chains, and cryptography, both in breaking conventional RSA algorithms and in creating post-quantum standards.
The Cryptographic Threat That Cannot Wait
The US NIST published the first post-quantum cryptography standards in August 2024. Sufficiently scaled quantum computers can compromise the RSA and ECC encryption that protects nearly all current digital infrastructure.
The "harvest now, decrypt later" strategy is already in operation: state actors collect encrypted data today to decipher it when they have access to sufficient quantum capacity. For long-term valuable data such as trade secrets and intellectual property, the risk window is already open.
What the C-level Needs to Do Now
The correct response is not to wait for the technology to mature. It is to start the strategic assessment by identifying which critical processes depend on vulnerable cryptographic algorithms, which suppliers pose data chain exposure, and what the realistic timeline is for migrating to post-quantum algorithms.
IBM and Google are not presenting technological milestones merely for the capital markets. They are signalling the start of a competitive cycle that, this time, will not give a second warning.