Morgan Stanley Cuts 2,500 in Record Year, But JPMorgan Hired More: The AI Reckoning for Banks

Morgan Stanley eliminated 2,500 positions on March 4, approximately 3% of its 83,000 employees, just weeks after closing its best year in history, with record revenue in 2025 and a nearly 50% increase in investment banking in the last quarter. The bank attributed the cuts to "business priorities, location strategy, and individual performance," without explicitly mentioning AI. The backdrop, however, is artificial intelligence: Bloomberg Intelligence projects that global megabanks could eliminate up to 200,000 jobs in the next three to five years as technology takes over tasks currently performed by humans.

Where the Cuts Hurt and Where They Don't Reach

The projection of 200,000 stemmed from a survey of 93 technology and information directors, who estimated an average net reduction of 3% in the workforce; nearly a quarter of them predicted a decline of 5% to 10%, with the largest banks leading the way. The target is specific: back-office, mid-office, operations, customer service, and compliance checks (KYC), precisely the repetitive roles that an agent performs without complaining about overtime. Morgan Stanley itself preserved financial advisors, the front line that communicates with high-net-worth clients and closes deals. The bank cuts where machines have already taken over and protects where the human relationship still commands a commission.

The Payroll Is Not Just Shrinking; It Is Being Transformed

Here, the narrative of collapse collides with the numbers. JPMorgan, the largest bank in the US, increased its workforce by 2,000 in 2025, with over a third of the new hires going to corporate operations. According to data from Accenture shared by Fortune, 76% of banks expect to expand their technology teams due to agent-based AI. Robert Seamans, director of the NYU Stern management future centre, is straightforward: "If a large company says it's not going to hire as much due to AI or that it is laying off because of AI, I think there's a bit of smoke and mirrors in that." AI is not emptying banks; it is changing who they hire.

In Brazil, the Same Movement Has Already Emerged at the Front End

The four largest banks on the B3 closed more than 4,600 positions in the first half of 2025, according to the second-quarter balances. Bradesco led the way, with 1,875 fewer positions, followed by Santander (1,728), Banco do Brasil (615), and Itaú (505, of which 453 in Brazil). The noteworthy detail is what Bradesco did concurrently: while it streamlined branches and back-office functions under the banner of "adjusting the way of serving," it hired more than 2,500 technology professionals. The agency cashiers are leaving, while the engineers training the model are arriving. It is the same composition swap that Bloomberg describes abroad, occurring here without fanfare.

What Changes for Those Serving Banks

For the IT consultancy that thrives on banking projects, the reading is twofold. The personnel budget migrating from agencies to technology is, in part, supplier budget: someone needs to build, integrate, and govern the agents taking on KYC, reconciliation, and customer service. However, the bank that internalises 2,500 engineers is also the bank that will rely less on outsourced commodity development hours. The opportunity that opens is not one of selling manpower but selling what the bank cannot swiftly assemble on its own: regulatory specialisation, security, and accountability for an agent that makes mistakes with client money. The 2,500 cuts at Morgan Stanley and the 2,000 hires at JPMorgan together tell the same story: the bank of the late decade will have fewer people holding paper and more people monitoring machines.