SpaceX-xAI Launches IPO Roadshow at US$ 1.75 Trillion, Morningstar Valuates at US$ 780 Billion
The roadshow started on June 4 with a fixed price of US$ 135 per share, aiming to raise US$ 75 billion. According to Morningstar, the fair valuation is 55% below the asking price. Debut on June 12 as SPCX.
On June 4, SpaceX launched the roadshow for the IPO of the combined entity with xAI, with a fixed price of US$ 135 per share and a goal of raising up to US$ 75 billion at a valuation of US$ 1.75 trillion. The pricing is set for June 11, with the first day of trading on June 12, on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. This will be the largest initial public offering ever made, surpassing Saudi Aramco's US$ 25.6 billion in 2019 and Alibaba's US$ 21.8 billion in 2014.
The valuation has been under scrutiny since before the prospectus. Morningstar assigns a value of US$ 780 billion to the combined entity, which is 55% below the offer target. "SpaceX's orbital launch moat is likely the deepest in any industry today," wrote Brian Colello, head of equity research at the firm, in a report citing 134 Falcon 9 launches in 2025 and an 84% global market share in mass delivered to orbit. The same report points out that the value does not hold when adding in the AI division: xAI recorded an operating loss of US$ 6.35 billion in 2025 and burned through an additional US$ 2.5 billion in just the first quarter of 2026.
The Fixed Pricing Structure is Unusual
Musk has imposed an offering structure that is not standard on Wall Street. Instead of the classic book building with a reference range, SpaceX has gone to market with a fixed price of US$ 135, which the coordinating banks either accept or not. According to Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida and an authority on IPOs, this shifts the demand risk onto the underwriters. "Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are signing off on the syndicate knowing they must fill the book at a price that the issuer has decided," Ritter told Bloomberg on Wednesday. The last major offering with a similar mechanism was Google's IPO in 2004, under the Dutch model.
The technical point the market is dissecting is the treatment of Musk's shareholding. The billionaire holds approximately 42% of SpaceX's shares and supermajority voting rights after a class reorganisation in March. Sections of the updated S-1 highlight that he can veto class votes on his own until 2031, a structure comparable to Meta's, but more aggressive in its approval vectors. For Japanese pension funds such as GPIF and Norinchukin, and European ones like Norges Bank and ABP, this type of governance often forces mandatory weighting reductions in ESG mandates.
How xAI Factors Into the Equation
The rationale behind the IPO is to finance capex for Starlink, Starship, and xAI without returning to private markets. The AI division consumed US$ 8.85 billion over 18 months, and Musk's plan presented to potential underwriters is to triple Colossus's capacity, xAI's GPU cluster in Memphis, to 1 million Blackwell by the end of 2027. This figure implies purchases of US$ 30 to US$ 35 billion directly from NVIDIA, according to calculations from BNP Paribas. xAI's revenue in 2025 was US$ 1.8 billion, predominantly from Grok and API.
Apollo Global Management and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund are the known anchors of the book. The PIF is reported to commit between US$ 8 and US$ 12 billion, according to the Financial Times. Mubadala from the UAE and Temasek from Singapore complete the sovereign line-up. The European side is weaker: Norges Bank has declared public neutrality, and ABP has indicated that it will not participate in the initial allocation due to governance profiles.
In Brazil, the effect comes through two channels. Previ, Petros, and open pension funds have exposure to the Magnificent 7 via ETFs and American subsidy funds; a Nasdaq-listed SPCX with a weight in indices forces the adjustment of passive portfolios. The second channel is Starlink, with 320,000 active subscribers in the country according to Anatel in April, and spectrum regulation that the Ministry of Communications is still negotiating on a case-by-case basis. An IPO with increased scrutiny is likely to make the company more responsive to regulatory countermeasures.
The story of this offering is not whether it will launch at the requested price. It's how Musk will manage the credibility gap that Morningstar has named. The last time an IPO of this magnitude launched priced, in 2021 with Coupang at US$ 60 billion, the stock fell 51% over 18 months. The difference is that SpaceX generates US$ 14 billion in annual revenue, while xAI does not yet. The question is whether the market will price xAI as SpaceX with xAI upside, or as xAI with SpaceX collateral.